2010 Academy Award Predictions (UPDATE)

2010 Academy Award Predictions

November is gone by and we are currently at the last month of the year, December. As in many past ocations, many of the films which receive alot praise from the Oscars come from the November - December season, so now it becomes much more easire and also more interesting to try to predict who will make the five nominees and possibly who will win. This may be the last prediction I do in 2010, but I'll do at least one more before the nominees are announced, and then again when they are I'll share my thoughts about them and I'll try to guess who will win.

This time I'll try to guess some other categories that I haven't included in my past predictions (though some others will inevitable be left out), as well as the most important categories that I usually do. Also, I'll add a brief description under each category.

So here are my last predictions in 2010 for the 2010 Oscars:

Best Picture:
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Town
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Winter's Bone
The Ghost Writer
Toy Story 3

This year's race for Best Picture seems to be a very hard one, and argues to be a tougher one than last year's. This year we have a variety of films that can make the list, and these are what I think will do. From this list, I think the winner will ultimately be The Social Network, which is the movie that is getting more praise from the critics (along with Toy Story 3, but I don't think the Academy will give the award to an animated feature), so I think it is the safest choice so far. But there are other movies with the potential to win, like The King's Speech (which I think will get the BAFTA) and even Ghost Writer is got a chance, as it just won the European Film Award for Best Picture. But the favorite contendor to go against The Social Network is Christopher Nolan's Sci Fi/Action film Inception. Big budget, great production values and an almost garanteed strong campaign make this possibly the biggest rival The Social Network will have to face. And though I think it is safe to say that the winner will be The Social Network, this competition will prove to be far more interesting than last year's Avatar vs The Hurt Locker. But, if we take into account that the Academy has overlooked Nolan several times in the past, there is also a chance that he will get overlooked this year as well. Lets just hope this is not the case.

Best Director:
David Fincher - The Social Network
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Tom Hoper - The King's Speech
Ben Affleck - The Town

his year's race for Best Director also seems to be a very hard and close one. From this list, the only one that I would say that may get thrown out when the nominees are announced would be Ben Affleck, he can be repleaced by Danny Boyle or Roman Polanski or maybe Lisa Cholodenko, but so far I'd say he may get in. For the other four, they still may get put aside but so far I think they are in. The winner appears that will be David Fincher for The Social Network, but I'm sure that the other nominees will also present a tough fight.

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
James Franco - 127 Hours
George Clooney - The American
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Javier Bardem - Biutiful

This is another very tough competition and is probably hard to try to guess who will win, that assuming that my predictions are right. There are also a few other possible candidates that may enter the list (Leonardo DiCaprio, Jesse Eisenberg or Ewan McGregor maybe?), but so far this are the ones that are most likely to get in. I'd say that the award will probably go to Colin Firth for The King's Speech, a performance which the critics are raving about, but also a very strong contender might be Javier Bardem in Biutiful, who won Best Actor at Cannes and many critics are guesing that he may take home this award too.

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit's Hole
Tilda Swinton - I Am Love

We are flooding on tough competitions this year, but the one that's probably the hardest one is the Best Actress race. With a year full of great performances by female players, this are probably the ones who will get in. I had to remove Julianne Moore from the list, but not because she doesn't deserve to be here, on the contrary I fully 100 per cent support her being nominated, but this year's race seems to be so hard that the Academy will most likely favor Annette Bening over her. And to guess who will win the award can be even harder to try to guess who will make the five, but I would go with Annette Bening or Natalie Portman. Before I considered Tilda Swinton the one who would take it, but after re-watching The Kids are All Right and hearing all the praise for Natalie Portman (I haven't seen the film yet) I'd say that the award will probably be between them.

Best Supporting Actor:
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Sam Rockwell - Conviction
Christian Bale - The Fighter

With the Supporting Actor category I think that the winner may be Christian Bale in The Fighter or Geoffrey Rish from The King's Speech. Though I have not seen these two films, you can see from the trailer of The Fighter (I know basing one's opinion in a trailer might be tricky, but in this case I think this might be safe) you can see that Bale has taken his role to a whole new level, and with Geoffrey Rush, he's been getting alot of praise too and he's been nominated already for a coupl of awards. Jeremy Renner may also stand a chance, but I think the competition will be between the said two.

Best Supporting Actress:
Olivia Williams - The Ghost Writer
Marion Cotillar - Inception
Helena Boham Carter - The King's Speech
Violante Placido - The American
Cecil DeFrance - Hereafter

And while in the other categories the race seems to be a very hard one, in here it isn't really that tough. While a couple of possible conteneders may still get left out, I don't think there will be alot of competition coming from here. I think the award will go to Helena Boham Carter from The King's Speech, who has also been receiving praise and nominations like her co-stars, but I would like to see Marion Cotillard stand in that stage once again winning in this category, but I don't think it will happen.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network (Written by Aaron Sorkin, based on the book The Accidental Millionaires by Ben Mezrich)
Winter's Bone (Written by Debra Garnik and Anne Rosellini, based on the novel Winter's Bone by Daniel Woodrell)
The Ghost Writer (Written by Roman Polanski and Robert Harris, based on the novel The Ghost by Robert Harris)
Shutter Island (Written by Laetta Kalogridis, based on the novel Shutter Island by Dennis Lehane)
The Town (Written by Ben Affleck, based on the novel The Prince of Thieves by Chuck Hogan)

This year there are many possibilities to end up in this list, but I think this are the ones who will get in. The award this year is most likely to go to Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network, but the rest of the nominees may also present a hard battle against it.

Best Original Screenplay:
Inception (Written by Christopher Nolan)
Toy Story 3 (Written by Michael Arndt)
The King's Speech (Written by David Seidler)
Black Swan (Written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and Jon McLaughlin)
The Kids are All Right (Written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg)

Unlike its adapted counterpart, the Original Screenplay race looks seems to be a harder one. With nominees such as the ones above, the competitions looks to be very interesting, not to metion that there may be a list of others that may not make the list. From here, I think the Award may go to The Kids are All Right, but it is a very hard choice, as the other four potential nominees are great also and are likely to be favored by the Academy.

Best Animated Feature:
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Despicable Me
Tangled
Megamind

The battle here is likely to be between Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon, but it is not hard to try to guess who will win. Toy Story 3, coming from the undefeatable Pixar, will be the one chosen, not to mention that it may also be nominated for Best Picture.

Best Visual Effects:
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy

Hard once again, but I would place my bet on Tron Legay.

Best Film Editing:
The Ghost Writer
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The American

The award is between Inception and The Social Network, and it is very hard to try to guess right now but The Social Network may be the one to take it (just think about the Winklevoss Twins).

Best Sound Editing:
Inception
Tron: Legacy
Shutter Island
The Town
Iron Man 2

I think the winner will be Inception but Tron Legacy may win also. I would bet for Inception, but we still have to see Tron.

Best Sound Mixing:
The Town
Toy Story 3
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron: Legacy

Here's the same case as in the Sound Editing category.

Best Cinematography:
Inception
Shutter Island
The American
The Social Network
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Many films have had excellent camera work this year, with the ones above been the films that I think most deserve to get nominated, but there are also a couple of others that deserve it too. The award may go The American, which is full of excellent shots and camera work, but Inception also had great cinematography, so maybe that is my second choice.

Best Art Direction:
The American
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
Robin Hood

I would say the winner is between Alice in Wonderland and The King's Speech.

Best Costume Design:
Robin Hood
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
Black Swan
Shutter Island

Robin Hood's costumes were very good, Shutter Island's also, and Never Let Me Go received good praise for its costume design among other things. But Black Swan is likely to be ignored, leading me to who I think will win: The King's Speech. You can see with clips, pictures and trailers that its production is wonderful, and many are praising it for its realism. So The King's Speech really stands a chance to win this award.

Best Make Up:
Black Swan
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
The American
Never Let Me Go

Alice in Wonderland and Black Swan are most likely to be the two front runners here, but The King's Speech, The American and Never Let Me Go also stand a chance.

Best Original Score:
Never Let Me Go
The American
Shutter Island
Inception
The King's Speech

Beautiful music in Never Let Me Go and The American, haunting score in Shutter Island and Inception, with an excellent soundtrack for The King's Speech. To tell the truth, I don't know who will win here, but I am leaning towards Never Let Me Go.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Dogtooth (Greece)
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Thailand)
Biutiful (Mexico)
Of Gods and Men (France)
The First Beautiful Thing (Italy)

Dogtooth received great praise in its country, Uncle Boonme Who Can Recall His Past Lives won Palm D'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, Biutiful is being called Gonzales Inarritu's best feauture yet and has been excellently received at Mexico and at Cannes too, the same thing for Of Gods and Men, and The First Beautiful Thing received praise at the European Film Awards. Sadly, films like The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo isn't possible to be elected as Sweden didn't submit it as its official submission for this award. But the films that may get nominated, I think the award is between Biutiful and Of Gods and Men.

Best Documentary Feature:
Restrepo
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Oceans
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
The Oath

If it was my choice I would choose Exit Through the Gift Shop, an excellent look at the underground art of graffiti or street art, as the winner but I think the award will go to Restrepo, which I still have to see.

These are my predictions as of now. This is most likely to change when the year ends, but so far I feel good with them. It is very likely that I am wrong with most of the ones I think will win, and maybe also with the nominations. We'll have to wait to February 27 2011 to see. See you again at the beginning of January with a new list of predictions.