Final Predictions and Analysis Before the Ceremony
February 27th. W all know what day is today. The day the award season ends with the biggest award ceremony of the year. Tonight are the Oscars. Sadly, due to the amount of praise films receive by critics and other awards ceremonies, the Oscars become highly predictable. But this year, despite some predictability in hand too, might be one of the toughest to predict. What first seemed crystal clear has become muddy and hard to see through. So I'll make one last humble attempt at trying to predict the big awards. Ok, here we go:
Best Adapted Screenplay:
While many great and worthy films are in competition this year, the Adapted Screenplay category seems to be reduced to just one film since the beginning, and that is The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin's screenplay didn't just receive great praise, but it received as much praise as the film itself. Also, the fact that it was adapted from a true story, and not just a true story but the true story behind one of the biggest phenomenas of today, might give credit to the film.
Best Original Screenplay:
This might be a little harder to predict. The film I would have liked to win wasn't even nominated (and it wasn't the first time), Black Swan. So, without Black Swan out of the way the award has been narrowed into two possible winners: Inception vs The King's Speech. Personally, I would like The Kids Are All Right to win, but it is clear it will be between these two. Now, Inception was mindbending and complex, all which can help it win the award, but I think the Academy will lean towards The King's Speech. The film has Oscar written all over it.
Best Supporting Actor:
The Best Supporting Actor race is narrowed once again into two: Christian Bale for The Fighter vs Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech. Rush just won the BAFTA, but Bale hhas already won a Golden Globe, an SAG and a Critic's Choice, so I think Bale's a much safer choice. Now, both of these actors were fantastic in the film, and I personally prefer Bale, but the aggressive campaign The King's Speech has been leading for the last couple of months mgith benefit Rush.
Best Supporting Actress:
Ask me a few months ago and I would tell you without hesitation that Melissa Leo is all in for the award. But recent events indicate that she might not be the Academy's first choice, and instead they'll go for Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Between these two women I personally prefer Melissa Leo (her performance being one of the high aspects of the film), but most people seem to prefer Hailee Steinfeld. And many Academy members wanted her in the Best Actress race rathe than Best Supporting, so it is possible that these people will vote for her in this cetegory. Its a tough call, but it seems that Steinfeld is closely leading the competition.
Probably the easiest category to guess of the year, the Award will go to the stammering King George VI, played magnificently by Colin Firth. Firth's performance is more than simple acting, its heartbreaking and inspiring, and that is something people love. And while Bardem won at Cannes, it is very unlikily he'll win here. (Sorry, friend-o)
Its easy to guess who will win, but recently another competitor has risen. The race was being led by Natalie Portman's incredible performance in Black Swan, while Annette Beining seemed to have been dormant, but her campaign seems to be working, for she's won already the Hollywood Award, the London Film Critics Award, Women Film Critics Circle, and the New York Film Critics Circle among others. Yet, I think the award will still be taken by Portman.
I think this one isn't very hard to guess. Despite Tom Hooper winning the Director's Guild Awards, David Fincher seems to be the one most likely to win. He deserves the award, and due that he ahs already won the Golden Globe, the Critic's Choice and the BAFTA, I think it is pretty clear who will win.
Now, here's the tough one. Before, I had for granted that The Social Network would win the award. It had won almost all the awards, including the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice. But recently The King's Speech seems to be the one who will most likely take the award. With a BAFTA, a Director's Guild and Producer's Guild won, the odds are in favor for The King's Speech. I would like The Social Network to win, but it is a really tough call. The King's Speech seems to be more Oscar material than The Social Network, but Network is the big movie about the current generation. It is not like last year when the race was between Avatar (a film that, despite what people said, the Academy would never go with) and The Hurt Locker, which was the safest option. This year we have to very good and strong contending films. I don't know how it will turn out, but people think it will be The King's Speech who takes the award.
How accurate my predictions were? We'll find out tonight ;) Thanks for reading